Potential impact of climate warming on the recruitment of an economically and ecologically important species, the European lobster (Homarus gammarus) at Helgoland, North Sea

A laboratory-based study was performed to assess the impact of climate warming on the recruitment of the endangered population of the European lobster (Homarus gammarus) at Helgoland (North Sea, German Bight). Egg-bearing females collected in situ just after spawning in late summer were subjected to various seasonal temperature regimes. Regimes with elevated temperatures (mild winters) resulted in a strong seasonal forward shift of larval hatching. Hatching took place at significantly lower temperatures than under regimes with normal winters. Experiments on larval development across a range of constant temperatures showed that no successful larval development occurred at temperatures below 14 C. Larval survival increased from 9% at 14 C to 80% at 22 C, while duration of larval development decreased correspondingly from 26 to 13 days. We hypothesize that an ongoing warming of the North Sea will strongly affect the recruitment success of the Helgoland lobster, mainly resulting from a decoupling of the seasonal peak appearance of larvae from optimal external conditions (temperature, food availability) for